SENATE PRESIDENCY: Contenders And Pretenders

The National Assembly elections on February 25 threw up a lot of surprises. Parties least expected to produce lawmakers now have substantial seats at the Red Chamber.

The presence of so many minority parties is threatening the ambition of some ranking lawmakers who have their eyes on the Senate Presidency. Though the ruling party produced majority of Senators-elect, thus giving it the privilege to effectively produce the top two Presiding Officers of the 10th Senate, aspirants vying for the positions on the platform of APC must of necessity forge alliances with opposition lawmakers to secure the majority of votes needed to win.

The formal inauguration of the 10th Senate is expected to take place on Tuesday June 13, 2023 after proclamation of the 10th National Assembly by the incoming president. The battle may actually be a battle for supremacy between five ex-governors in the race and other Senators-elect.

Already, according to chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Professor Mahmood Yakubu, the number of Senators-elect so far are 10. The breakdown is All Progressives Congress (APC) 56 Senators, Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) 32, Labour Party (LP) 7, New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) 2, Social Democratic Party (SDP) 2, All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) 1 and Young Progressives Party (YPP) 1. Eight seats are expected to be filled during the supplementary election conducted by INEC yesterday.

From the above, it is clear that APC won more than half of the 109 available seats and would by tradition produce the two Presiding Officers – Senate President and Deputy Senate President. However the race for the Senate presidency among the APC Senators-elect that are ranking as well as first timers promises to be both high-wire and interesting. Each aspirant is expected to be at his best in exploiting the support of their contacts, godfathers and equally displaying political clout, personality and positive antecedents.

At the moment, no fewer than 10 APC Senators-elect have either indicated or are believed to be interested in the top job. They include incumbent Senate President Ahmad Lawan (Yobe North), Mohammed Ali Ndume (Borno South), Barau Jibrin (Kano North), Mohammed Sani Musa (Niger East), Chief Whip of the Senate and ex-Governor of Abia State, Orji Uzor Kalu (Abia North), ex-Niger Delta Affairs Minister and former Governor of Akwa Ibom State, Godswill Akpabio (Akwa Ibom North West), Governor of Ebonyi State, David Umahi (Ebonyi South), former Governor of Zamfara State, Abdulaziz Abubakar Yari (Zamfara West), Osita Izunaso (Imo West) and former Governor of Edo State and ex-APC National Chairman, Comrade Adams Oshiomhole (Edo North).

Of all these eminently qualified lawmakers and those yet to join the race, it is apparent that the contest would both be tough and unpredictable. However, some of the determining factors for any of the aspirants to emerge Senate President would largely depend on if the APC would zone the position to any of the geopolitical zones.

Now that the President-elect Bola Ahmed Tinubu and the Vice President-elect Kashim Shettima are from the Southwest and Northeast geopolitical zones respectively, it is expected, but not mandatory, that the position of Senate President, Deputy Senate President, Speaker, House of Representatives and Deputy Speaker, House of Representatives, be evenly spread among the remaining four geopolitical zones of the country, namely: Northwest, North-Central, Southeast and South-South.

It must be noted that any of the contenders endorsed by APC after due consideration for zoning may emerge victorious. The national leadership of the party is expected to formally zone the two positions after the ongoing Ramadan fast, according to Senate spokesperson, Ajibola Basiru (APC – Osun Central).

The leadership of the APC may decide to anoint or impose any of aspirants for the respective positions but they may equally choose to be neutral and allow senators-elect to choose who will lead them. This is often not the case, as the party would want to have a grip on those at the helm of affairs in both chambers of the National Assembly.

This is basically to ensure that the incoming president can seamlessly work with the leadership of both chambers in formulating policies and getting critical Executive Bills and requests through the National Assembly without difficulty.

APC could also elect to throw the contest open among its senators-elect and allow the most popular candidate to emerge. The party is not new to endorsing open contest for positions of leadership in the party. It could be recalled that the party had endorsed all members of the Senator Abdullahi Adamu-led National Working Committee to emerge as consensus candidates while it threw open its presidential ticket for contest by most of the candidates that applied. It is not yet known if the next Senate President and Deputy Senate would be imposed by the party by throwing its weight behind a particular candidate or be democratically elected by allowing all APC senators-elect that have signified interest to vie for the position to go by way of the ballot as prescribed in the Senate Standing Orders 2015 (as amended).

According to the provisions, the Senate President and his deputy would be elected by simple majority. Any senator, irrespective of party affiliation, can nominate or be nominated as would be senate president or deputy senate President. There is also no limit to the number of senators to be so nominated. The provisions adds that voting shall be either through electronic or secret ballot while the Clerk to the National Assembly shall serve as the returning officer.

Order 3, Rule 2 of the Senate Standing Orders 2022 (as amended), provides that “the nomination of presiding officers and appointments of Principal Officers and other Officers of the Senate shall be by the ranking of Senators. In determining rank, the following Order shall apply. (i) Senators returning based on the number of times reelected; (ii) Senators who had been members of the House of Representatives, (iii) Senators elected as Senators for the first time.”

In 2015, the failure of President Muhammadu Buhari to take a timely stand on who to choose led to the emergence of Senator Bukola Saraki and the frosty relationship between the Executive and Legislature. Tinubu, who is believed to be a good strategist, may not repeat such a mistake.

The Senators-elect gearing up to contest for the position of Senate President and Deputy Senate President and their chances of winning or not winning or otherwise are as follows:

AHMAD LAWAN

Lawan has his first degree in Geography and Master’s degree in Remote Sensing from the Ahmadu Bello University and a Doctorate degree in Remote Sensing/GIS from Cranfield University in 1990 and 1996 respectively. He has been in the National Assembly since 1999. He spent three terms in the House of Representatives and would resume his 5th term in the Senate upon inauguration of the 10th National Assembly on June 13, 2023. He is seen as the most experienced among those jostling for the position of Senate President. He is equally a scholar who has served as majority leader in the Senate. He has equally presided over critical standing committees and Adhoc committees in both chambers.

Lawan can retain his seat as Senate President in the 10th National Assembly if the leadership of the APC with majority in the upper chamber so desires. Otherwise, they may advise him to either shelve his ambition or test his popularity during voting just like he did during the presidential primary election of the APC where he emerged in fourth place.

While his colleagues from among the returning APC Senators-elect may be disposed to back his ambition, the votes would surely be divided if other ranking APC senators-elect like Barau Jibrin (APC Kano North and Sani Musa (APC – Niger East) throw their hats in the ring as they have publicly declared. If that happens, he would need to rely on votes from 45 opposition Senators-elect on the platform of the PDP, LP, NNPP, SDP, APGA and YPP.

The emergence of the Vice President-elect Shettima who is from Borno State in the Northeast region of the country may dampen the chances of Lawan should the APC decide to give the position to another zone. Already, Tinubu is from Lagos State in the Southwest. Besides, only about 30 of the Senators in the Ninth Assembly got re-elected. Be that as it may, Lawan may need additional votes from first time APC senators-elect and those of the opposition to retain his position. He is yet to officially declare for the position.

GODSWILL AKPABIO

Akpabio is a lawyer by training and a former governor of Akwa Ibom State. He was Minority Leader during the 8th Senate. He is the immediate past Minister of Niger Delta Affairs and one of the presidential candidates of APC who stood down for Tinubu.

He has the requisite qualification and experience to be the next Senate President. But his fate lies in the hands of the party, who may zone the Senate presidency to any region of its choice. If it is zoned to the South-South, he may likely pick it, but if it is goes to any other geopolitical zone, then it would be out of his grip. However, Akpabio has a way of springing surprises in any contest and he may be praying that the race be thrown open.

He may get the backing of 13 ex-governors and two ex-deputy governors that would be in the 10th Senate. From the results declared by INEC so far, 11 former governors, two incumbent Governors, a former deputy governor and one serving deputy governor, are among the senators-elect. He is yet to officially declare for the position.

The former governors are: Adams Oshiomhole (Edo), Orji Uzor Kalu (Abia), Godswill Akpabio (Akwa Ibom), Seriake Dickson (Bayelsa), Dave Umahi (Ebonyi), Danjuma Goje (Gombe), Ibrahim Hassan Dankwambo (Gombe), Ibrahim Shekarau (Kano), Adamu Aliero (Kebbi), Gbenga Daniel (Ogun), Ibrahim Gaidam (Yobe), Idiat Adebule (Lagos, Deputy) and Ipalibo Banigo (Rivers, Deputy).

ORJI UZOR KALU

Kalu is a former governor of Abia State. He is media entrepreneur among other businesses and one of the chieftains of APC from the Southeast. He is the Chief Whip of the 9th Senate. He had declined to contest for the position of president during APC’s primary election because he said it had not been zoned to the Southeast. He later supported the presidential ambition of Lawan. But after the primary election, he and the Senate President threw their weight behind Tinubu. If APC’s leadership decides to zone the position to the Southeast, Kalu may well be favoured to clinch the ticket. Otherwise, he may have to fight his way through should the race be thrown open. At the moment only six APC senators-elect (himself inclusive) have emerged from the Southeast. He will need to seek for support from other zones of the country to realise his ambition.

Kalu while declaring his intention to occupy the top post, insisted that it is his turn to become the next Senate President. He urged APC to zone the seat to his village in Igbere in Abia North Senatorial District. He said with his position as Chief Whip of the current Senate, he is the most ranking Senator from his region and deserves the position. He said he will contest the position of Senate President if APC allocates it to Southeast.

On whether he will be comfortable having a Muslim as a Senate President in the 10th National Assembly, Kalu said: “The answer is no because I speak the truth. Like I told you people, that I will stand for Muslim-Muslim ticket for president and that is the only thing that would make APC win.

“I will not be comfortable with a Muslim Senate President because this is a secular state. We need to accommodate interests, nations and spread to be able to maintain the secularity of our country.”

ADAMS OSHIOMHOLE

Oshiomhole, a former Governor of Edo State is a first time Senator-elect and would represent Edo North Senatorial District. As the immediate past National Chairman of APC and a former president of the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC), he is a household name in the party and across the country.

Though he lacks the required legislative experience and is least ranking among lawmakers believed to be interested in the post, he will be contending with Akpabio, who is also from the South-South should the post be ceded to the region.

He may also benefit from votes from ex-governors and deputy governors who have made it to the 10th National Assembly. Besides, he may also be able to get the votes of LP Senators-elect who are presently seven in number.

His long term political association with the President-elect may also confer some advantage on him. His major drawback would be his lack of ranking and the feeling in some quarters that he appears to always want to have his way, the view of the majority notwithstanding.

Some of those opposed to his ambition have argued that this personality trait may not be in tandem with the spirit prevalent in the chambers where the minority are expected to have their say and the majority their way. Oshiomhole is yet to officially contest the position.

BARAU JIBRIN

The Chairman, Committee on Appropriation in the current Senate, Barau Jibrin represents Kano North. Even though he has not formally declared his intention to seek the number one job in the Senate, he is believed to be interested. He is the only Senator of APC stock from his state returning to the 10th National Assembly. He is both ranking and experienced as a legislator. He will be favoured if the party zones the position to the Northwest and would equally prove his mettle should the race be thrown open. He may enjoy the votes of opposition senators from the Northwest, Northeast and North-Central.

Jibrin who has been in the  National Assembly since 1999 and in the Senate since 2015 recently told reporters that the Senate Standing Rule prioritizes seniority (ranking) and legislative experience above other considerations for the top job.

He said: “I intend to seek to be the President of the 10th Senate. In the next few days, I will start my campaign and make a formal declaration.

“The Legislature is a distinct arm of government that doesn’t work based on sentiments, it works on your ability to get the job done. It is the tradition all over the world and it is also stated there in our rule book and the rules are drafted from our Constitution.

“It is stated there in our Standing Rules that aspirations of elections for the seat of the Senate Presidency shall be in accordance with ranking. Among those who are running for the seat of the Senate Presidency, I am the most ranked senator.

“So, it is constitutional and among those who are showing their intentions to run for the Senate Presidency, I am the most experienced. The issue is that of competence. You need to be grounded, in the residue of the legislature before you become the Senate President. Do you now play against competence based on sentiments?”

On claims that it would not augur well for the next APC’s administration to have a Muslim as Senate President, Jibrin disagreed. He said: “Remember that David Mark was a Christian, his Deputy, Ike Ekweremadu, was a Christian and the Speaker, House of Representatives, Patricia Etteh, was a Christian because they were the most experienced and ranking and that is the tradition, so do we now relegate competence for other sentiments? Bringing religious sentiment won’t fly. It’s about competence not sentiment. When we talk about experience, I’m the most experienced.”

“There is need to reward performance. The North West deserves to produce the Senate President because we gave the President-elect the highest votes,” he added.

“We want our president to go for second term. We saw what he did in Lagos and want him to replicate that across the country.

“In 2015, when President Buhari was declared the winner, he tried to give attention to the area that gave him the highest votes. Key government positions were zoned to the Northwest and Northeast to reward the people.”

MOHAMMED SANI MUSA

Senator Sani Musa represents Niger East and is currently chairman of the Senate Services Committee – which makes him highly influential among senators. He is popularly referred to as 313. He is ranking and has the legislative experience to pilot the affairs of the 10th Senate if he is able to convince his colleagues to entrust him with the office of Senate President.

Known to be highly cerebral and easy going, he can pull surprises should the race be thrown open. He will equally benefit if the position is zoned to North-Central. He had contested for the position of National Chairman of APC, but had to shelve his ambition when Senator Abdullahi Adamu emerged consensus candidate of the party. He has indicated his readiness to consider the position of Deputy Senate President if the party tells him to do so.

Speaking on his ambition, Musa said: “I will say, there is no office that deserves to be zoned to the North Central than the Office of the Senate President.

“But as a party loyalist, and having an interaction with the party leadership before the Governorship and House of Assembly elections at the presidential Villa, the National Chairman of APC, Senator Abdullahi Adamu, requested that we all keep our intentions until when the party decides to release the zoning formula.

“Be that as it may, and as we can all see that the Muslim-Muslim ticket, which am sure will be addressed, we will queue in and decide to make our declaration. Just as I said earlier, I would not want to pre-empt the party, I will wait for the decision of the party.

“Whatever is the interest of the North Central as one of the geopolitical zones that gave President-elect Tinubu the highest votes…if you look at the votes we gave to APC and the votes we gave to PDP, we have the largest and these things have been happening for a very long time each time we align with the governing party in the North-Central.

“So, I believe by the time they deal with the zoning, we will be able to see what is left for us.

“I do know there will be nothing less than the Deputy Senate President because that is what will be fair to us. And if you ask me about my ambition, every human being have ambition.

DAVID UMAHI

Governor Umahi of Ebonyi State will be in the Red Chamber for the first time as a Senator and he is already jostling to be Senate President from the Southeast. He is relying on the possibility that the office would be zoned to the East. He, against all odds, defected to APC in his bid to contest for the presidential ticket of the party. He lost to Tinubu at the primaries. He later won a fresh senatorial primary when the candidate stepped down. The perception that he performed in terms of infrastructure development in Ebonyi may be his selling point but the fact that the Southeast has dominated the position of Senate President since 1999 may work against him.

Umahi while declaring his intention for the job in Abakaliki, the Ebonyi state capital, told journalists that: “I am asking the National Assembly to set aside the House Rules for the best to emerge. If the Senate zones the Senate Presidency to the Southeast, I am indicating interest, so I have been in public service for the past 16 years, so you can see that I understand what it takes to rebuild this country. I appeal to the Senate to set aside the rules for the best man to emerge. This is without prejudice to the will of God.

“We courageously left PDP to APC, because of injustice, so the South East trusts APC because in Ebonyi State, we returned three Senatorial Candidates, three House of Representatives Candidates, so Ebonyi is totally APC. It will be very fair enough for the nation Nigeria to look in the direction of South East in this Senate Presidency.”

OSITA IZUNASO

Senator Izunaso from Imo West, is also in the race for the presidency of the Senate.

Izunaso disclosed his intention during the week when he presented his Certificate of Return to President Muhammadu Buhari at the Aso Rock Villa. He told the President of his interest in the top position in the Senate. He insisted that, as the most senior lawmaker from the Southeast and South-South zones, he stands a greater chance of becoming the next Senate President. It is worthy to note that the Imo lawmaker retired Senator Arthur Nzeribe, a maverick politician, after stopping him from getting PDP’s ticket.

He said: “I came to the Senate in 2007; I was in the House of Representatives. I’ve been in the party for five solid years. I ran the party to the best of my ability as National Organising Secretary that saw us to victory in 2015 and 2019, so I think we have paid our dues.

“I’m the oldest… there’s no senator today in APC of Southeast or South-South that is older than me in the Senate and that is an institution that believes in ranking. So I’m the highest ranking senator in both Southeast and South-South.”

MOHAMMED ALI NDUME

Ndume has been in the National Assembly since 1999. He was a Senate Majority Leader in the 8th National Assembly. He contested the position of Senate President against Lawan in the 9th Senate. He is ranking with requisite legislative experience. He contends that the position of Senate President should naturally be his as the most ranking APC Senator in the current dispensation – a tradition accorded ranking lawmakers in advanced societies. The emergence of the Vice President-elect from his home state of Borno may be his major obstacle in terms of equitable zoning.

His supporters say he could he approached for the position of Deputy Senate President, if the number one position eludes him. He has advocated that the race be thrown open. He called on the leadership of APC to allow senators to pick their leaders rather than the proposed zoning. He argues that Senators-elect are not “small boys” that cannot choose their presiding officers.

“The APC leadership did not take any position during the presidential primary election. Aspirants from all the geopolitical zones participated in the exercise,” he said.

“Senators should be allowed to choose a competent person among them that has adequate legislative and managerial experiences to lead the Senate. Zoning may not lead to the emergence of the best person for the job that is why the decision to choose the Senate presiding officers must be the sole responsibility of the senators.”

ABDULAZIZ YARI

Former governor of Zamfara State, Abdulaziz Yari, is also warming up to contest the office of Senate President. He lost the opportunity of becoming a Senator in the 9th National Assembly, due to the Supreme Court ruling which sacked all elected politicians on the platform of APC following a face-off between his faction and that of Senator Kabiru Marafa.

He is ranking having served in the House of Representatives before becoming governor. Yari and Jibrin want APC to reward one of them for the Northwest giving the President-elect the highest votes during the presidential election.

Speaking in a video shared on Twitter by Imran Muhammad, an APC chieftain, Yari said: “The election has come, gone and the same zone (Northwest) demonstrated what they are doing and took the lead in terms of producing votes to our president-elect and party.

“Despite the fact that some people were thinking about how to subvert it, we have done our best despite the challenges. Now, we have president (Tinubu) from the South-west, we have the Vice President from the Northeast and the Northwest is waiting. I believe if my zone decides to support me they are not supporting the wrong person. I believe they know my capacity right from party chairman, member of House of Representatives to governor.”

(thenationonlineng.net)